Communicating and Using Ensemble Flood Forecasts in Flood Incident Management: Lessons from Social Science

Résumé :

This chapter explores the practical challenges of communicating and using ensemble forecasts in operational flood incident management. It reviews recent social science research on the variety and effectiveness of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) visualization methods and on the cognitive and other challenges experienced by forecast recipients in understanding probabilistic forecasts correctly. To explore how those generic findings from the research literature work out in actual operational practice, the chapter then discusses a series of case studies detailing the development, communication, and use of HEPS products in various institutional contexts in France, Britain, and internationally at the EU and global levels. The chapter concludes by drawing out some broader lessons from those experiences about how to communicate and use HEPS more effectively.