The primary objective of this research is to understand the characteristics and developments of the current functioning of the national housing system over a period of thirty-five years. The aim is to develop a longitudinal approach by using the "National Housing Surveys" (ENL) conducted by INSEE from 1978 to 2013 in a comprehensive and systemic approach. This approach aims to measure the impact of housing supply on the redistribution of urban populations, taking into account the characteristics of the housing stock, mobile households, stable households, and chain effects. The processes and their effects will be studied using the "Habitat Systems Analysis" (ASHA°) model.
The second objective of the research is to improve the model in terms of both its usability (ergonomics) and its predictive robustness. This will involve working on:
- ergonomics, in order to integrate new data output modes into the interface, visualizing simulations in the form of interactive graphs and tables suitable for comparative study,
- segment modeling to take into account population aging at each iteration during simulations,
- methodological developments to study the possibility of refining the model by reducing the "step" of each iteration during simulations.
- the algorithm in order to improve the robustness of the model, to carry out a detailed study of changes in the national housing system, using a comprehensive approach, with the ultimate goal of proposing a robust model capable of simulating possible changes, blockages, and transformations over the next two decades.
Method
This involves using the National Housing Surveys conducted between 1978 and 2013, which contain information on the occupancy of the housing stock, mobility between segments of the stock, and entries from outside France. This application will enable a longitudinal analysis of changes in the national housing system (1978, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2002, 2006, 2013). The ASHA model will enable simulations to be carried out that reproduce the system identified in each housing survey (4, 6, or 7 years) by introducing future construction and demolition (informed by subsequent housing surveys), in order to verify the validity of the results through a possible comparison between surveys. This method should make it possible to analyze the evolution of the system and identify its mechanisms and potential blockages ("the housing crisis").